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Economic Forecast Seminar 2023 sheds light on Korea’s and the world’s economic perspectives

Le 17/03/2023

Discover experts' global economic outlook for 2023 to understand and better respond to the economic slowdown!

As the gradual lifting of health restrictions and the new global context have shaken macroeconomic trends at the worldwide scale and in Korea, FKCCI organized the Economic Forecast Seminar 2023 on March 16 to provide insight into the economic prospects of Korea and the world for 2023, gathering more than 70 guests from the Korean and international business communities at Mondrian Seoul Itaewon hotel.

The seminar started with opening speeches from FKCCI Chairman Mr. David-Pierre Jalicon, and H.E. Mr. Philippe Lefort, Ambassador of France to Korea, followed by presentations from three experts on the Korean, Asian, and international markets who gave a forecast for the economic trends of 2023 and 2024. The event was closed with a toast by H.E. Dae Jong YOO, Former Ambassador of Korea to France and Ambassador for International Relations of Gyeonggi Province.

“After a strong economic recovery in 2021, the outbreak of war in Ukraine on February 14th 2022, plunged the world into a new crisis, again leading to a global economic slowdown and constrained the recovery”, declared the French Ambassador. Still, “in the bilateral field, 2022 was a year of all records: trade between France and Korea jumped by 30 % to reach €Bn 13.4 at an unprecedented level which makes Korea the 4th market in Asia with which France exchanges are above €Bn 10 after China, India and Japan.“, he added.

A statement supported by David-Pierre Jalicon, FKCCI Chairman, who said that “despite a low growth projection of 1,7% for this year in Korea, we remain optimistic, and we still believe that there will be opportunities for our members and French companies, as the fundamentals of the Korean economy remain stable. Additionally, the Korean government gives strong signals that it will support the economy through investment plans as confirmed by our meeting with MOTIE last month.”

Experts from prestigious institutions, Dr. Sang-Ha YOON, Head of International Macroeconomics Team at Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), Ms. Adeline-Lise KHOV, Economic Counsellor & Head of the Economic Department at the Embassy of France to Korea, and Suktae OH, Chief Korea Economist at Société Générale shared their insights on the global markets and the domestic Korean economy's outlook.

At the global scale, recovery is expected to be suppressed by three key elements: interest rate hikes and private-debt burden, dilemma in fiscal policies’ tightening, and worsening geopolitical conditions.

In this context, the Korean GDP grew 2,6 % in 2022 lower than forecasted early last year and is expected to slow down to between 1.5 and 1.8%, caused by a combination of external and internal factors. The Korean economy shrank 0.4 % in the last quarter of 2022, a result of the impact of the Ukraine war and the lockdowns in China. External factors, such as the high dependency of Korea on its energy imports while prices are soaring, the decline of demand for semiconductors, and internal factors such as high interest rates, were cited.

In the short term, the experts cited that Korea is facing several challenges including falling prices of real estate, a fall in its exports, the collapse of American bank SVB and the reopening of China’s economy. On the longer-term, the country will have to tackle rooted issues to remain competitive such as rising household debt, low labor productivity and aging population.

To find out more on 2023 global economic outlook, download the full presentations below.